EJ Antoni Proposes Suspending Monthly Jobs Report Amid Concerns Over Accuracy

Antoni Suggests Quarterly Data Instead of Monthly Jobs Reports Due to Reliability Issues

EJ Antoni, nominated by President Donald Trump as the next commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), has proposed suspending the monthly jobs report, citing concerns over its accuracy and frequent overstatements. Antoni argued that the BLS should shift to releasing quarterly data until the agency can improve the precision of its monthly jobs figures.

In an interview with Fox Business News, published Tuesday, Antoni stated that the current monthly job data is unreliable and often misleading. He emphasized the need for a revision in the approach: “Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,” Antoni said. He noted that key decision-makers, from Wall Street to Washington D.C., rely on these numbers, and a lack of trust in the data has significant ramifications.

Trump Fires Former BLS Commissioner After Disputed Jobs Report

Antoni’s nomination follows the dismissal of the former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, by President Trump. The decision came after the July jobs report indicated weak growth and included substantial revisions for May and June. Trump, without providing evidence, claimed that the revisions were part of a “scam” and an effort to undermine his presidency.

In response, Trump announced on Truth Social, “I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Highly Respected Economist, Dr. E.J. Antoni, as the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

Antoni Critiques BLS’ Data Collection, Calls for Accuracy Over Speed

While Antoni expressed his disagreement with Trump’s claim that the BLS intentionally manipulated the jobs data, he criticized the agency’s methodology. He pointed out that revisions to monthly jobs reports have become substantially larger since the pandemic, especially in the cases of May and June. However, he clarified that these revisions were not unprecedented.

The May jobs total was revised downward to 19,000, significantly lower than the initial estimate of 139,000—resulting in a 120,000 job revision. Similarly, the June jobs total was revised downward to 14,000, a significant revision from the initial 147,000 estimate.

Monthly Revisions Have Been a Long-Standing Issue

The BLS has tracked monthly revisions of jobs data since 1979, although the agency introduced a new probability-based sample design for revisions in 2003. Between 1979 and 2003, the average monthly revision was 61,000 jobs. Since the redesign in 2003, the monthly revision has slightly improved to 51,000 jobs on average.

Economic data, especially labor market statistics, is frequently revised as more comprehensive information becomes available. The pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains and U.S. businesses has made accurately measuring economic activity more challenging. Still, the BLS’s jobs report continues to be a key indicator, despite its inherent flaws.

BLS’ Methodology and Future Outlook

The monthly jobs report, composed of two large surveys, is often based on incomplete data, making revisions necessary. These revisions occur twice after the initial report is released, as more data is collected. The BLS also employs a methodology to account for new businesses and closures, further complicating the accuracy of the data.

Annually, the BLS conducts benchmark revisions to replace sample-based estimates with fuller employment counts gathered from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Although the QCEW offers a more accurate picture of labor market activity, it is significantly delayed due to its reliance on quarterly tax reports.